Market downturn and your retirement portfolio

Can Your Retirement Porfilio Handle a Drop In the Market?

Imagine you’re five years out from retiring. Your assets are performing great, and you get excited because you will have enough money to retire and travel like you’ve always wanted to!

Then a major drop in the market happens, taking with it your hopes of traveling and a good chunk of your retirement money.

This is what sequence of return risk looks like for many retirees.

What is Sequence of Return Risk?

Sequence of return risk is the risk that an individual may experience negative investment returns early in retirement, which can significantly reduce the value of their retirement savings and potentially lead to a shortfall in retirement income. This can occur even if the average investment returns over the course of retirement are positive.

To illustrate the impact of sequence of return risk, consider two retirees who have the same average annual investment returns of 6% over a 20-year retirement. However, one retiree experiences a period of negative returns in the first few years of retirement, while the other retiree experiences negative returns in the last few years of retirement. The retiree who experiences negative returns early on will have a much lower retirement income than the other retiree, even though their average annual returns were the same.

Risk Management:

Sequence of return risk is important because it can significantly impact a retiree’s financial security. If a retiree experiences negative returns early on, they may need to withdraw a larger percentage of their savings to maintain their desired standard of living, potentially depleting their savings too quickly. This can make it difficult to recover even if investment returns improve in later years. In contrast, if a retiree experiences negative returns later in retirement, they may have more time to recover from losses, as they will have already withdrawn funds from their portfolio.

There are several strategies that retirees can use to manage sequence of return risk, including:

  1. Diversify your portfolio: Diversification can help to mitigate the impact of poor investment returns in any single asset class.
  2. Consider a more conservative investment strategy: A more conservative investment strategy may provide more stability and reduce the risk of significant losses during market downturns especially as retirement gets closer.
  3. Implement a withdrawal strategy: Developing a withdrawal strategy that takes sequence of return risk into account can help to ensure that retirees don’t withdraw too much from their portfolio early in retirement.
  4. Use annuities: An annuity can provide a guaranteed stream of income, which can help to mitigate the impact of poor investment returns.
  5. Consider working longer: Delaying retirement or working part-time in retirement can provide additional income and allow retirees to delay drawing down their savings until market conditions are more favorable.
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Market Volatility: Invest Smart, Know the Risks

Investing into the market for retirement funds is a risky business. Retirees often purchase individual stocks or invest in financial products such as mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or even variable annuities. There are other options such as defined contribution plans that invest into stock market and sometimes a company’s stock. 401(k)s are a common option offered by employers with a matching percentage. Having various investments allows for a more diversified portfolio, leading to a better chance at the safe and secure retirement you have always dreamt of.

However, invest smart and know the risks: the financial markets have significant fluctuations. There is a huge chance of majorly reducing retirement funds due to a bad down in the stock market. Therefore, long- and short-term investments are encouraged.

With the roller coaster of the financial markets, timing is everything when it comes to withdrawing from retirement savings & investments. Unfortunately, what may happen with the return of these investments is more negative than anything to the investor. Meaning, more of the account or assets may need to be liquidated to ensure spending power and keep that consistent stream of income. This is called sequence of return risk. An example of this was with the 2008 Recession; where the market declined and many lost their homes, their other investments, their retirements. For those who have awhile to save and plan are able to likely recover loss. Retirees with less time or who need their income soon will have to sell their investment assets while the market is down to reduce further loss and keep that income. A great loss is encountered if assets cannot be recovered.

Diversification of these assets/investments is important. Individual assets, such as the mutual funds and ETFS, may be managed professionally. These funds may have a focus on small to larger companies, even with specific fields or industries in mind. For individually chosen stocks and annuities, consider stock investments. Within these various options, there are performance and choice risks. Investment for retirement funds is a choice that should be taken with research and guidance.

As mentioned, there is always risk with investing—especially for your dream retirement. The following are some great strategies to limit the risks.

Diversify. Hold various investments across the classes (i.e. hold bonds and stocks). The more spread out and full the investments are better at loss absorption your portfolio is. For example, loss in individual stocks can be offset by holding stocks in 15+ companies and balancing the funds throughout these. If you were to hold the same amount over 5 companies/stocks, you are exposed to a greater risk if one of those companies crashes versus if you have the funds spread over 15 or more. Even considering fixed income investments is great! These will not yield as much return, however.

Long term is best. With investments, time is typically on your side. Especially in the case of recovering losses. It is rare you will see recovery happen overnight—it takes years. Those near or in retirement will want to monitor their investments closely because if a major loss occurs, you may be better off selling. Top experts suggest relying on income-generating policies while moving funds from the stock market throughout your retirement years.

Roll with the pooled. Like carpooling to an event, a pooled investment is smaller contributions from individual to make a larger investment fund. Some examples are mutual funds and target-date funds. Oftentimes these are done with financial experts and there may be fees involved.

Remember fees. Higher fees do not necessarily mean a higher yield on investments. They reduce the overall return, so monitoring and understanding them is important for your financial wellbeing. 401(k)s and other defined contribution plans may have fees; sometimes a fee may be charged if using a financial advisor for advice and portfolio management.

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