bear market

Market downturn and your retirement portfolio

17May

Can Your Retirement Porfilio Handle a Drop In the Market?

BlogMay 17, 2023

Imagine you’re five years out from retiring. Your assets are performing great, and you get excited because you will have enough money to retire and travel like you’ve always wanted to!

Then a major drop in the market happens, taking with it your hopes of traveling and a good chunk of your retirement money.

This is what sequence of return risk looks like for many retirees.

What is Sequence of Return Risk?

Sequence of return risk is the risk that an individual may experience negative investment returns early in retirement, which can significantly reduce the value of their retirement savings and potentially lead to a shortfall in retirement income. This can occur even if the average investment returns over the course of retirement are positive.

To illustrate the impact of sequence of return risk, consider two retirees who have the same average annual investment returns of 6% over a 20-year retirement. However, one retiree experiences a period of negative returns in the first few years of retirement, while the other retiree experiences negative returns in the last few years of retirement. The retiree who experiences negative returns early on will have a much lower retirement income than the other retiree, even though their average annual returns were the same.

Risk Management:

Sequence of return risk is important because it can significantly impact a retiree’s financial security. If a retiree experiences negative returns early on, they may need to withdraw a larger percentage of their savings to maintain their desired standard of living, potentially depleting their savings too quickly. This can make it difficult to recover even if investment returns improve in later years. In contrast, if a retiree experiences negative returns later in retirement, they may have more time to recover from losses, as they will have already withdrawn funds from their portfolio.

There are several strategies that retirees can use to manage sequence of return risk, including:

Diversify your portfolio: Diversification can help to mitigate the impact of poor investment returns in any single asset class.
Consider a more conservative investment strategy: A more conservative investment strategy may provide more stability and reduce the risk of significant losses during market downturns especially as retirement gets closer.
Implement a withdrawal strategy: Developing a withdrawal strategy that takes sequence of return risk into account can help to ensure that retirees don’t withdraw too much from their portfolio early in retirement.
Use annuities: An annuity can provide a guaranteed stream of income, which can help to mitigate the impact of poor investment returns.
Consider working longer: Delaying retirement or working part-time in retirement can provide additional income and allow retirees to delay drawing down their savings until market conditions are more favorable.

25Feb

The Importance of Stock Bubble Stages

Podcast BlogFebruary 25, 2022

In context, a financial bubble is observed disbelief when prices increase, and stocks become overvalued. A bubble can pertain to individual stocks, an entire sector, market, or asset class. When the bubble ‘bursts’ stocks or assets are sold off and prices rapidly decline. The burst leads to a crash. While the collateral of the burst depends, it may spill over into other areas. For example, the U.S. dotcom bubble in 2000 and the 2008 real estate bubble bursts lead to severe recessions.

Stages of a Bubble

Displacement begins when investors obsess over new ideas or opportunities such as technology. During these periods prices will steadily, but slowly, rise.
Boom follows as the momentum from the displacement catches. While more people invest in the specific asset, widespread attention is brought upon it. The bigger the audience, the more people decide to invest because they want in on the success. As more investors invest even more follow.
With prices still going up, euphoria reaches extremes that keeps a steep rise on prices. What plays out next is that people are fooled into still buying more.
Fourthly, profit-taking begins when institutional investors take advantage of the warnings sign that the bubble is just before its bursting point. These investors begin selling first and take profit. However, predicting the exact moment of popping is difficult.
Popping the bubble could be a major event or a minor jab at the bubble’s edge. Inducing panic, investors want to liquidate assets immediately at any price. This creates a supply that overcomes demand. Prices drop drastically quickly.

Causes of Bubbles

There are limitless ways bubbles can begin, especially in our global economy. The following are major historical influencers:

New products or technologies create demand which increases prices.
Supply shortages of an asset/item creating a climb in price.
Interest rates hit a low, encouraging borrowers to establish lines of credit or take out loans. This leads to increased spending and investing.
An uptake of foreign investors come in due to favorable opportunities.

When the Bubble Bursts

Bubble bursts can be triggers by major or minor events. Ultimately, inevitably, bubble must pop. The aftermath can be short-lived where little loss is experienced.

However, the worst-case scenario is a stock market crash leading to a recession (which could lead to a depression). What matters most is the size of the bubble—meaning small or specialized assets classes or bigger sectors such as real estate or tech. After size what matters most for impact is how much investment money is involved.

Debt-fueled bubbles can lead to long-lasting recessions. Our most recent example of this is the housing bubble pop in 2006-07 that jumpstarted the Great Recession.

How will this impact your retirement assets? Listen to The Retirement Risk Show episode “Cause and Effect: Stock Market Edition” where Dave Hall provides an in-depth analysis of the current market, discusses historic crashes and corrections, and speaks about what a market crash in the foreseeable future would mean for you retirement and how to protect your retirement assets before that crash does happen.

04Feb

Past, Present, & Future of Market Volatility

Podcast BlogFebruary 4, 2022

Every up has a down, every down has an up. Lulls and downturns in trade are cyclic norms—something our stock market is no stranger to. Historically speaking, the global market sees a downturn approximately every 10 years. Since retirement has been left to individuals to figure out, a lot of options to build a retirement savings are invested.

How can you protect your retirement assets from a market crash? The best way to begin doing so is understanding major market corrections within the last century.

Market Crash of 1929

As a catalyst to the Great Depression, this crash ending the market up known as the Roaring Twenties. The market was booming in the 1920s. Over almost a 2-month period, the market slowly descended into a 13% decline on Black Monday and followed on Black Tuesday with a 12% decline.

The bear market immerged by mid-November with the Dow having lost more than 20% of its pre-crash value. Losing value until it bottomed in the summer of 1932, the Dow took until 1954 to reach the 1929 pre-crash value.

The cause? Investors and investment trusts bulk-purchased stocks on margin—paying a tenth of a stock’s value under a loan. At this time, too, consumers began to acquire credit, purchasing items left and right. The debt bubble burst causing the catalyst of the Great Depression.

Crash of 1987

The Black Monday of 1987, this crash began when the Dow dropped over 20% in a single day. That November is when all the market indexes had lost 20% of their value. The rebound took almost two years, much faster compared to the Black Monday and Black Tuesday set off in 1929. By September of 1989 the market indexes reflected a complete bounce back of the 1987 losses.

The cause? A series of events: a growing U.S. trade deficit and worldly tensions, especially those in the Middle East, contributed to the market. The biggest factor was the computerized trading programs that had been launched. Computers would automate large buys when prices raised and sell orders when prices tumbled. When the trading-verse was floored by these automation, other investors would panic-sell and panic-buy.

1999-2000 Dot-Com Bubble Crash

In the late 1990s, internet-based stocks drastically skyrocketed. Resulting in the tech-dominated Nasdaq index to surge. The surge met its maker with a 77% drop over 2000-2001, reaching its lowest point in October 2002. Nasdaq did not see a pre-crash value for almost 15 years.

The cause? The Dot-Com Crash is a serial offender. The foremost cause was overvalued internet stock. Investors predicted that online companies would become profitable, so they poured their money into the ‘dot com’ sector. Secondly, the Federal Reserve restricted their monetary policy, straining capital flow.

Crisis of 2008

About ten years prior, the Federal National Mortgage Association made home loans more accessible to higher-risk individuals—those with less money for down payments and low credit scores. Payments for these people came with the reflection of their high-risk profiles: above average interest rates and variable, pricy payment schedules.

With mortgage debt availability increased, investors and previously ineligible borrowers ate up the opportunity. However, consumers during this were racking up additional debt. Companies saw an increase in debt, too, because they wanted to take advantage of the economic boom.

The collapse happened by September that year. Stock indexes had lost over 20% of their value because investing banks could not cover their loss from taking on the high-risk mortgages. It took four years for the market to reach its pre-crash value.

The cause? The American economy was debt-fueled. Banks and real estate were drowning.

Coronavirus Induced Crash

As the most recent, this crash occurred worldwide. During the last week of February several of the market indexes dropped 11.5%, marking the biggest loss since the crisis of 2008. The Dow set a record on March 12 when it fell by 10%. Sadly, four days later, it dropped another 13%. These were the largest day-drops the Dow saw since Black Monday of 1987.

This crash bounced back by May because of stimulus money, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and pumped trillions into markets. Congress passed a massive aid package to stimulate the economy, too.

The cause? Covid-19 infections shutting down economies worldwide that domino-effected supply chains and workflow.

How can I use this information to help my retirement?

It shows that market crashes and corrections can happen whenever. The best course of action now is to lower retirement risk and diversify your retirement assets, so you are protected when a market crash does happen.

Retirement planning is the most important step in reducing the market volatility risk. Have six months of living expenses saved in a rainy-day fund. This way you are prepared if your retirement assets take a hit. Consider long-term: a life insurance policy or an annuity that can protect against market loss, offer that lifetime income needed, and overall decrease your retirement risk.

For more information on the market and how to think long-term to reduce your risk of market volatility, please listen to episode 5 of The Retirement Risk Show, “In This Current Market Flux, Think Long-Term” at https://www.buzzsprout.com/1844811/9998926.